Support for US alliances around the world is at or near an all-time high. Author Jason W. Davidson examines these alliances to shed light on their nature and what they reveal about the evolution of American power. To be sure, there have been dents in the web of legacy alliances. Updated on January 28, 2020. Separately, the United States is also bolstering its defense cooperation with key NATO allies in the South (Greece) and in the North (Norway, Denmark).33Humeyra Pamuk, Blinken Says Renewed US-Greece Defense Deal to Advance Stability in Eastern Mediterranean, Reuters, October 15, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greece-says-renewed-defence-deal-with-us-protect-sovereignty-both-2021-10-14/; US Department of State, US-Norway Supplementary Cooperation Agreement, April 16, 2021, https://www.state.gov/u-s-norway-supplementary-defense-cooperation-agreement/; and Denmark Talks on Hosting US troops Not Triggered by Ukraine Crisis: PM, Reuters, January 10, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/denmark-us-begintalks-new-defence-agreement-2022-02-10/. 30 (February 2000), Jamestown Foundation (defunct publication), https://jamestown.org/program/russia-and-north-korea-sign-friendship-treaty/. All rights reserved. The government chooses its foreign affairs policy to safeguard the interests of the nation and its citizens. This article is based on his study "The Myth of Entangling Alliances: Reassessing the Security Risks of U.S. Defense Pacts," published in the Spring 2015 issue of International Security.. For more information on issues and events that shape our world, please visit ISN Security Watch or browse our resources. . Deterrence is an improbable proposition, but it does seem to work. Moreover, the US actually undermined both in the Suez crisis. Khang Vu, Why China and North Korea Decided to Renew a 60-year-old Treaty,Interpreter(commentary and analysis site), Lowy Institute, July 30, 2021, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/why-china-and-north-korea-decided-renew-60-year-old-treaty. While their NATO memberships dampen the risk of a full-blown war between them, the United States has been less willing to play a mediating role than it did during the Cold War.126Likewise, an improbable, but not farfetched, scenario calling for Washington to play a mediating role could involve South Korea and Japan. Love is the only force capable of transforming an enemy into a friend. Author Jason W. Davidson examines these alliances to shed light on their nature and what they reveal about the evolution of American power. Michael Beckley is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Tufts University. Moreover, except in rare cases, they are generic as opposed to threat specific (i.e., designed to face one single, explicitly identified threat73This is the case for the US commitment to the South-East Asia Treaty (see below).). He was not alone. The first ever in-person summit of the leaders of the four countries was held in September 2021. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel. And for the first time, a majority of Americans (52%) supported using US troops if China were to invade Taiwan.50Smeltz et al.,A Foreign Policy for the Middle Class. Elizabeth Wilmhurst, Definition of Aggression, General Assembly Resolution 3314 (XXIX) of December 14, 1974, Audiovisual Library of International Law, Albrecht Randelzhofer and Georg Nolte, Article 51, in, On the notion of red lines, see Bruno Tertrais, The Diplomacy of Red Lines,, In international law, armed attack authorizes self-defense and differs from mere aggression. The French language obfuscates the difference between the two by using the expression agression arme for armed attack., Brussels Summit Communiqu Issued by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the North Atlantic Council in Brussels., Dimitry Kochenov, The Application of EU Law in the EUs Overseas Regions, Countries, and Territories After the Entry into Force of the Treaty of Lisbon,. The endurance of existing military alliances can be partly explained by mere inertia, vested interests, and sunk costs.72Stephen M. Walt, Why Alliances Endure or Collapse,Survival39, no. That same year, Armenia and Russia signed a bilateral defense pact that included a security guarantee.54Breffni ORourke, Russia, Armenia Sign Extended Defense Pact, Radio Free Europe-Radio Liberty, August 19, 2010, https://www.rferl.org/a/Russian_President_Medvedev_To_Visit_Armenia/2131915.html. Regional cooperation is also on the rise in other parts of the world. The Indo-Pacific region has also featured the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM) since 2006, and the South Pacific Defense Ministers Meeting (SPDMM) involving Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and Tonga since 2013. This may be due to the emboldening of protected allies or fear for their own reputation.103Dominic Tierney, Does Chain-Ganging Cause the Outbreak of War?,International Studies Quarterly55 (2011), https://academic.oup.com/isq/ article/55/2/285/1791143?login=true. Since 1945, alliances have lasted fourteen years on average, compared with eight years before then.75Breet Ashley Leeds et al., Reevaluating Alliance Reliability: Specific Threats, Specific Promises,The Journal of Conflict Resolution44, no. 2 (April-June 2018), https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053168018779697. See Clara Sophie Cramer and Ulrike Franke, eds., Ambiguous Alliance: Neutrality, Opt-Outs, and European Defence, Essay Collection, European Council on Foreign Relations, June 2021. Entrapment is a form of undesirable entanglement. See Tongfi Kim, Why Alliances Entangle but Seldom Entrap States,, Dominic Tierney, Does Chain-Ganging Cause the Outbreak of War?,, Choong-Nam Kang, Capability Revisited: Allys Capability and Dispute Initiation,, Macias and Higgins, Trump Says Defending Tiny NATO Ally Montenegro., Brett V. Benson et al., Ally Provocateur: Why Allies Do Not Always Behave,. Robert G. Bell, NATO Nuclear Burden-Sharing Post-Crimea: What Constitutes Free-Riding? (doctoral dissertation, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, June 2021), 61. "They may fight with us, but they don't fight for us.". By Almost all defense commitments have significant caveats that are stabilizing.87The Article 5 language was a compromise between the language of the Rio and Brussels treaties. There is nothing on this earth more to be prized than true friendship. Refer to each styles convention regarding the best way to format page numbers and retrieval dates. US Reputation and International Politics(Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2017); and Alex Weisiger and Keren Yarhi-Milo, Revisiting Reputation: How Past Actions Matter in International Politics,International Organization69, no. Assuming that America can avoid a nuclear war with Russia, the American people would be well-served to ponder and reflect on some of the good founding principles of our country. Sweden to Join NATO Response Force and Exercise Steadfast Jazz, NATO, Newsroom (website), October 14, 2013. Defensive alliances are not always upheld: a recent academic analysis found that they are honored only 41 percent of the time.116Molly Berkemeier and Matthew Fuhrmann, Reassessing the Fulfillment of Alliance Commitments in War,Research & Politics5, no. France and the United Kingdom, by virtue of their permanent membership of the UN Security Council and their roles in the Indo-Pacific region, would have specific reasons to participate in such scenarios. The defense ministers of Cyprus, Greece, and Israel have met annually since 2018. Alliance Origins and Their Effect on the Outbreak of World War One The First World War began after a complex series of events, which had distinct roots that can be found in the foreign policies of European countries' governments. It is institutionalized like no other. This is also true for some bilateral defense commitments such as the Franco-Greek one of 2021, which includes the condition that both parties must jointly find that an armed aggression has taken place. Bruno Simma et al., Third Edition (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013), 1409. For militia as well as cyberattacks, international law provides the useful concept of cumulative effects. An alliance system definition is a mutual agreement, outlined in a document, between at least two (or more) countries. The same goes for concepts such as an alliance of democracies once promoted by US President Joe Biden.11Joe Biden, Democracy in an Age of Authoritarianism, Remarks by then-Vice President Biden, Copenhagen Democracy Summit, June 22, 2018, https://www.allianceofdemocracies.org/speech-by-joe-biden/. See J. F. R. Boddens Hosang and P. A. L. Ducheine, Implementing Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union: Legal Foundations for Mutual Defence in the Face of Modern Threats, Amsterdam Law School Research Paper No. The UK signed its own defense agreement with the UAE in 1996; the UK governments comments in Parliament suggest that London is committed to deterring threats or preventing aggression against the Emirates, and, in the event of such aggression taking place, to implementing the joint military plans which are judged appropriate for the defense of the UAE.57UK Parliament, Co-operation Accord (United Arab Emirates), Hansard (official report of debates) 286, Commons: November 28, 1996, Written Answers, Defense, https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/1996-11-28/debates/becc7cbf-c160-4d16-95f4-b2fbf024a1ef/Co-OperationAccord(UnitedArabEmirates). The same problem exists with major cyberattacks, which could qualify as armed attacks warranting self-defense only if attribution could be ascertainedsomething which may be extremely difficult. Indeed, we may well see more attempts by revisionist powers to test commitments in contested spaces. As Beckley explains, in most conflicts, only a few allies were directly threatened and demanded US intervention. These alliances weren't the sole cause of World War I, as some historians . According to the policy, the United States should consider external alliances as temporary measures of convenience and freely abandon them when national interest dictates. (Recall that President Trumps disparaging comments about the tiny and aggressive country of Montenegro were precisely meant to signal the fear that an ally could drag the United States into World War III.105Macias and Higgins, Trump Says Defending Tiny NATO Ally Montenegro.) In particular, revisionist countries holding unconditional deterrent agreements are more likely to initiate conflict than if they had not been given an alliance or had been given a conditional deterrent alliance instead.106Brett V. Benson et al., Ally Provocateur: Why Allies Do Not Always Behave,Journal of Peace Research30 (2013), https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343312454445. Abstract. Opinion polls show that overwhelming national majorities support their countrys NATO membership.47NATO Public Diplomacy Division, NATO Audience Research: Presummit Polling Results 2021, June 11, 2021, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/ news_184687.htm. Bilal Y. Saab, Syria and Iran Revive an Old Ghost with Defense Pact, Brookings Institution, Op-Ed, July 4, 2006. In addition, the Treaty of Lisbon (2007) commits EU members to collective defense through Article 42.7.34Article 42.7 no longer binds the United Kingdom, which has left the EU. In early 2022, according to two different polls, a surprising number of Americans and Europeans were ready to defend Ukraine.51Carl Bildt et al.,Survey: Western Public Backs Stronger Support for Ukraine against Russia, Atlantic Council, January 25, 2022, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/survey-western-public-backs-stronger-support-for-ukraine-against-russia/; and Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, The Crisis of European Security: What Europeans Think About the War in Ukraine, Policy Brief, European Council on Foreign Relations, February 9, 2022, https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-crisis-of-european-security-what-europeans-think-about-the-war-in-ukraine/. In fact, modern defense commitments are vaguer than they were in the past in terms of the anticipated allied response.115As an example, the Dual Alliance of 1879 committed Austria-Hungary and Germany to come down on Russia with the whole war strength of their empires. See The Dual Alliance Between Austria-Hungary and Germany October 7, 1879, The Avalon Project: Documents in Law, History and Diplomacy, Yale Law School, Lillian Goldman Law Library (website), accessed May 30, 2022. NATOs Article 5 was invoked for the first time ever. These groupings have not replaced formal military alliances: their development comes on top of them. Mira Rapp-Hooper, Absolute Alliances: Extended Deterrence in International Politics (doctoral dissertation, Columbia University, 2015), Columbia University Academic Commons (website), Breet Ashley Leeds et al., Reevaluating Alliance Reliability: Specific Threats, Specific Promises,. the defense-alliance trio known as AUKUS, or coalitions for given operations such as those in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, or Libya. In that Farewell Address, Washington warned against the peril of foreign entanglements. Significance: Entangling Alliances one of the five reason of World War 1. Europe Before World War I. also one of the causes that made Britain explode (Britain was a powder keg at the time). Definition: complex web of alliances that forced countries to fight each other if needed/called upon. Protected parties may fear abandonment, but security guarantors fear entrapment.102The word entanglement is often used, but alliances by nature entangle the interests of their members. As one legal commentator put it, EU law applies very differently to Campione dItalia, the Holy Mount Athos, the municipality of Budapest, the double kingdom of Wallis-et-Futuna within the French Republic, Martinique, or the Island of Bonaire.100Dimitry Kochenov, The Application of EU Law in the EUs Overseas Regions, Countries, and Territories After the Entry into Force of the Treaty of Lisbon,Michigan State International Law Review20, no. This definition of alliance also excludes collective security organizations such as the Organization for the Security and Co-operation in . 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